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The Future Has Thicker Tails than the Past: Model Error As Branching Counterfactuals
Fukushima Counterfactual histories Risk management Epistemology of probability Model errors Fragility and Antifragility Fourth Quadrant
2012/11/23
Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors...